The COP31 climate conference taking place in Antalya, Turkey is set to usher in an ‘electric century’ as the world steps up transition away from fossil fuels, writes Jill Nicholls*.
Almost 200 countries are represented at the 11-day conference (Nov 9-20) which will focus heavily on improving energy resilience by reducing dependence on oil and gas with electrically powered heat pumps, vehicles and solar panels playing key roles.
Climate minister Katie White committed the UK to accelerating the transition away from gas boilers and petrol cars as part of its longer-term goal of reaching net zero by 2050. She said the conference “needs to mark the beginning of the electric century. We are at that tipping point moment”.
Governments will be urged to meet a new ambitious target to electrify more of their energy needs with heat pumps specifically referenced as part of intensified efforts to reduce gas consumption worldwide. Currently electricity accounts for about 20% of global energy demand and COP31 will seek an agreement to increase that to 35% by 2035.
The talks are taking place against a backdrop of war in the Middle East forcing up fossil fuel prices and stark warnings about the current El Nino event leading to even more extreme weather events.
Whether or not the conference agrees the new electrification target, the direction of travel is set. Targets are often arbitrary, but they have been shown to push countries and industries in the right direction – just often at a different pace – so we can make plans and this has huge implications for skills in our sector.
Reducing your AI risk
While the COP31 delegates were gathering, a CBI Economics report was published which showed that 84% of jobs in the ‘green’ economy were at a reduced risk of being replaced by AI. This compares with 74% across the wider economy.
Green Advantage: Employment in an AI-Enabled Economy, which was commissioned by the Futerra Solutions Union and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), also showed that 96% of green apprenticeships taken by young people in England lead to jobs that are comparatively difficult for AI to replace. The figure is 73% for all apprenticeships in England i.e. 27% are vulnerable to AI.
Practical, hands-on green careers, such as electricians, engineers, plumbers, renewable energy technicians, and heat pump installers, rely heavily on physical and technical skills that are largely “AI-proof”, according to the research.
This finding was also echoed in an installer skills survey carried out by heat pump manufacturer Baxi which showed rising optimism across the sector. Six in ten installers responding to the survey said they were developing heat-pump competencies or planning to, and apprentices saw a positive future for their skills in clean heat technologies.
Clean heating and home Insulation were highlighted in the CBI report because their core operations rely on unpredictability and physical dexterity that AI struggles to replicate. Similarly, the growth in heat networks and increasing demand for cooling technologies provide reasons for employer optimism. However, despite the huge tech backlash that led to the Democrats sweeping the board in last week’s US mid-term elections, this does not signal a rejection of everything AI.
At last month’s BESA Annual Conference, the executive editor of The Economist Andrew Palmer said AI could have a positive impact on building engineering businesses, but managers should set clear rules for its use and maintain firm ‘guardrails’ to reduce risks.
He described AI as having reached “a weird moment” where it is still creating jobs but not making money or delivering much in the way of productivity improvements. However, that will change.
“AI is not at job level yet…it is still largely restricted to narrow tasks without too many variables,” Palmer told his audience at The Brewery, London where more than 300 delegates representing almost 150 companies came together for a packed one-day programme sponsored by Mitsubishi Electric.
“AI is not impacting employment levels yet so it will take a long time to reach the [predicted] ‘jobs apocalypse’,” said Palmer, who hosts the podcast Boss Class.
However, he warned managers to set clear parameters for how AI is used in their businesses now and not simply “hand over the keys to the castle”. He said critical thinking, creativity and understanding emotion was now “all the more important” and advised against “cognitive surrender” where people meekly hand over important decisions to AI despite being afraid of the potential outcomes.
Rapid deployment
So, as the ‘electric century’ dawns and the rapid deployment of AI continues what should our employers, educators and the building services engineers of our present and future be doing to prepare?
Firstly, they should be optimistic. More young people are being encouraged to think about learning a ‘practical’ skill to insulate themselves in the face of growing automation. You can design and optimise building engineering solutions digitally but physical deployment on site is still a very long way off.
We should be harnessing AI in a way that allows it to complete the ‘tasks’ described by Palmer in his keynote speech that can enhance productivity and drive efficiency. With sufficient guardrails in place, AI can optimise management tasks, speed up design processes and reduce errors, but it cannot (yet) replace human original thought and creativity.
This is a huge moment for building engineering and its related professions. The industry’s skills are in demand across the global economy to help upgrade the built environment so it can meet social requirements and adapt to climate change; to create the data centres and buildings required to underpin the roll out of AI; and deliver the facilities needed for our energy transition.
As the direction of travel set by COP31 shows, we are both at the eye of the storm and have the wind behind us.
Visit the BESA Academy to see just what’s available in training and apprenticeships for this growing green economy. BESA's targeted training helps firms demonstrate competence and compliance, ensuring our industry can play its part now and in the future.
*Jill Nicholls is BESA's director of competence and compliance.